COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Wednesday / Thursday, May 25-26

Continued good news (relatively speaking) on the BA.2.12.1 wave. Cases have now peaked or are at peak everywhere in New England, plus NY, NJ, MN, MI, IL, WI, and ND, and possibly DC and MS. Cases appear to be close to peaking in PA, DE, MD, and VA, plus possibly KY and MO.

The pace of increase nationwide has slowed in the last 3 days for the first time in over a month, up only 5% in the past week to 106,700, which could just be noise from non-reporting, but still is a positive. Hospital admissions continue to rise slowly, now at 26,200. Deaths remain very low at 348.

Since the Northeast started rising two weeks before the other Census Regions, we could only be 10-14 days away from the nationwide peak of the BA.2.12.1 wave. My best guess is still 150,000 cases, 50,000 hospitalizations, and 1500 deaths daily at peak.

I suspect that each new wave will be less and less lethal, because the most vulnerable will already have died, and the remaining population will have more and more resistance due to vaccination and/or repeated infection.

After a pretty bad April-May, things seemed to have peaked and are headed back down here in our little corner of upstate NY. Hospitalizations seem to have been pretty stable across the region the past couple of months. Not sure about deaths, because local counties are no longer reporting those. I’m still annoyed by the hospitalization reporting because nobody tells you how many were admitted *for* Covid illness, versus how many just happened to test positive while in the hospital for something else. It’s kind of like relying on officially reported positive tests versus knowing how many people are testing positive at home and not reporting it.

Washington state is considering requiring masking indoors again, and our governor, Jay Inslee, just tested positive.

On 5/25 Mainland China reported 104 new domestic confirmed (44 previously asymptomatic), 356 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 0 new domestic suspect cases, & 1 new death.

At Guangdong Province 8 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 50 active domestic confirmed & 23 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. All areas of the province are now at Low Risk.

At Guangxi “Autonomous” Region 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed (at Hechi) & 18 active domestic asymptomatic (10 at Fangchenggang, 6 at Baise, & 2 at Chongzuo) cases remaining.

At Hunan Province there currently are 3 active domestic confirmed cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.

Tianjin Municipality reported 11 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic, all mild) & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 17 of the new positive cases are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine & 1 via regular screening of response workers living in “closed loop”. The city is no longer reporting recoveries, so I cannot track the count of active cases.

Shandong Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case. 1 domestic confirmed & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 3 active domestic confirmed cases & 13 active asymptomatic cases in the province. As not all of the administrative divisions in the province provide data on recoveries, I cannot track the count of active cases in all of the administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
__ Jinan reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a person returning from Shanghai & under centralized quarantine since arrival. 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 11 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city
__ At Yantai 1 domestic asymptomatic case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
__ In the rest of the province 1 domestic confirmed (at Tai’an) & 2 domestic asymptomatic (at Heze) cases recovered.

At Taiyuan in Shanxi Province the last domestic asymptomatic case recovered.

At Shaanxi Province there currently are 6 active confirmed (5 at Xi’an & 1 at Ankang) cases remaining.

At Hebei Province 1 domestic confirmed & 6 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 21 active asymptomatic case in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks. All areas of the province are now at Low Risk.

Liaoning Province reported 6 new domestic confirmed cases. 1 domestic confirmed & 56 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 4 active domestic confirmed & 144 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
__ Yingkou did report any new domestic positive cases. 4 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
__ Dandong reported 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all persons under centralized quarantine. 8 sites are currently at Medium Risk.

Jilin Province reported 6 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 2 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. As the province does not consistently break down recoveries by confirmed & asymptomatic cases or by jurisdictions, I can no longer track the count of active case counts in the different jurisdictions.
__ Yanbian Prefecture did not report any new domestic positive cases. 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 1 domestic confirmed & 3 domestic asymptomatic cases in the city
__ Baishan reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 2 each at Changbai County & Linjiang, 1 traced close contact under centralized quarantine & 3 via screening of residents under movement control. There currently are 12 active domestic confirmed & 56 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
__ Tonghua reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both at Ji’an, both traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 6 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
__ At Changbaishan there currently is 1 active domestic confirmed case remaining.
__ At Changchun 1 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered.

Beijing Municipality reported 36 new domestic confirmed (2 previously asymptomatic) & 9 new domestic asymptomatic cases. Of the 31 domestic positive cases (6 asymptomatic & 25 mild) reported between 0 AM to 3 PM on 5/25, 29 are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine or residents under movement control & 2 via community screening. As the city does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there. 9 sites are currently at High Risk. 21 sites are currently at Medium Risk.

Shanghai Municipality reported 48 new domestic confirmed (31 previously asymptomatic) & 290 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all of the new positive cases were already under quarantine. There was 1 new death (63 y.o., w/ a range of underlying conditions, unvaccinated). 344 domestic confirmed & 3,926 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 1,893 active domestic confirmed (118 serious & 34 critical) in the city. The city is no longer publishing the number of active asymptomatic cases. 4 sites are currently at Medium Risk.

At Hubei Province 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently are 8 active domestic asymptomatic (3 at Jingmen, 2 at Ezhou, & 1 each at Enshi Prefecture, Qianjiang & Suizhou) cases in the province.

Jiangsu Province reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, 3 at Suzhou & 1 at Yangzhou. 14 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. All of the cases at Suzhou are traced close contacts under centralized quarantine, & the case at Yangzhou is a quarantine hotel worker living in “closed loop” found via daily screening. The currently are 3 active domestic confirmed & 42 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in each administrative division, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.

At Anhui Province 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 20 active domestic asymptomatic cases (13 at Huangshan & 1 at Anqing) in the province.

Zhejiang Province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Shaoxing) case, a traced close contact under centralized quarantine. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported versus domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.

At Fujian Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.

At Guizhou Province there currently are 2 active domestic asymptomatic (both at Qiannan Prefecture) cases remaining.

Jiangxi Province reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 9 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 35 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
__ Yichun reported 2 new domestic asymptomatic cases, both at Gao’an. 5 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 31 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.
__ At Shangrao 1 domestic confirmed case recovered. There currently is 1 active domestic asymptomatic case in the city.
__ In the rest of the province 3 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered, all at Fuzhou.

Henan Province reported 9 new domestic confirmed (all previously asymptomatic) & 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. 8 domestic confirmed & 13 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 131 active domestic confirmed & 457 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.
__ Zhengzhou reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) & 1 new domestic asymptomatic cases.
__ Pingdingshan reported 1 new domestic confirmed (previously asymptomatic) case.
__ Zhoukou reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic case, a person coming from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine since arrival.
__ Xuchang reported 7 new domestic confirmed (all previously asymptomatic) & 10 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Changge.

Sichuan Province reported 12 new domestic asymptomatic cases. As the province does not break down recoveries by imported vs. domestic cases, I cannot track the count of active domestic cases there.
__ Guang’an reported 11 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all at Linshui County, all persons under centralized quarantine. 3 sites are currently at Medium Risk.
__ The rest of the province reported 1 new domestic asymptomatic (at Chengdu) cases, coming from elsewhere & under centralized quarantine since arrival.

At Chongqing Municipality there currently are 2 active domestic confirmed & 1 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the city.

At Qinghai Province 2 domestic confirmed & 7 domestic asymptomatic cases recovered. There currently are 6 active domestic confirmed & 23 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the province.

Ürumqi in Xinjiang “Autonomous” Region reported 4 new domestic asymptomatic cases, all traced close contacts under centralized quarantine. There currently are 8 active domestic asymptomatic cases in the city.

At Yunnan Province there currently are 1 active domestic confirmed & 4 active domestic asymptomatic cases remaining in the province. As the province does not break down recoveries by administrative divisions, I cannot track the count of active cases in administrative divisions, given the multiple simultaneous outbreaks.

Imported Cases
On 5/25, Mainland China reported 26 new imported confirmed cases (0 previously asymptomatic), 59 imported asymptomatic cases, 1 imported suspect cases:
__ Xiamen in Fujian Province – 11 confirmed cases, all coming from Taiwan
__ Guangzhou in Guangdong Province – 3 confirmed cases, 1 each coming from Malaysia, Vietnam & the UK; 5 asymptomatic cases, 2 coming from Malaysia & 1 each from Uganda, the UK & the US
__ Shenzhen in Guangdong Province – 6 asymptomatic case, 3 coming from Hong Kong, 2 from Japan, & 1 from South Africa
__ Dongguan in Guangdong Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from the DRC & Guinea, off flights that landed at Guangzhou
__ Zhongshan in Guangdong Province – 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Hong Kong
__ Yunnan Province (location not specified) – 3 confirmed cases, all coming from Myanmar; 1 asymptomatic case, coming from Laos; all via land border crossings
__ Kunming in Yunnan Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from Sri Lanka
__ Chengdu in Sichuan Province – 2 confirmed cases, 1 each coming from Hong Kong & Taiwan; 5 asymptomatic cases, 3 coming from Hong Kong & 2 from Cambodia
__ Chongzuo in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region – 1 confirmed & 14 asymptomatic cases, all coming from Vietnam
__ Fangchenggang in Guangxi “Autonomous” Region – 2 asymptomatic cases, both coming from Vietnam
__ Shanghai Municipality – 1 confirmed case, coming from Singapore; 3 asymptomatic cases, 2 coming from Canada & 1 each from France & the US
__ Beijing Municipality – 1 confirmed case, coming from Taiwan; 1 asymptomatic case, no information released
__ Chongqing Municipality – 1 confirmed case, coming from Singapore
__ Wuxi in Jiangsu Province – 1 confirmed case, coming from the US, off a flight that landed at Shanghai
__ Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province – 7 asymptomatic cases, 3 coming from Canada, 2 each from South Korea & the UK
__ Tianjin Municipality – 2 asymptomatic cases, 1 each coming from Italy & Poland
__ Harbin in Heilongjiang Province – 2 asymptomatic cases, both coming from South Korea
__ Zhengzhou in Henan Province – 1 asymptomatic case, no information released

Overall in Mainland China, 441 confirmed cases recovered (21 imported), 4,191 asymptomatic cases were released from isolation (66 imported) & 44 were reclassified as confirmed cases (all domestic), & 24,767 individuals were released from quarantine. Currently, there are 3,387 active confirmed cases in the country (213 imported), 170 in serious/critical condition (all domestic), 22,128 active asymptomatic cases (428 imported), 1 suspect case (imported). 205,599 traced contacts are currently under centralized quarantine.

As of 5/25, 3,374.726M vaccine doses have been injected in Mainland China, an increase of 1.266M doses in the past 24 hrs.

On 5/26 Hong Kong reported 251 new positive cases, 36 imported & 215 domestic (75 via RT-PCR & 140 from rapid antigen tests), 2 deaths (both vaccinated, 1 boosted).

On 5/26, Taiwan reported 81,907 new positive cases, 55 imported & 81,852 domestic (including 242 moderate & 91 serious). There were 104 new deaths (ages ranging from 90 y.o., actual dates of death between 5/13 – 5/23, 97 having a range of underlying conditions, 55 partially/fully vaccinated).

@Raven Hope you get well soon. So far it sounds like a bad cold?

Baud, no, this is the first positive test. I don’t feel all that bad aside from the throat (and staying away from my girls)! The #Paxlovid info here isn’t very encouraging.

I just tested negative so I’m definitely flying back to NY tomorrow. I am actually SHOCKED. JFK was PACKED last week and Ireland is pretending it no longer exists.

How I avoided it I haven’t a clue.

@HeleninEire

That surprises me about Ireland. I figured they’d be better than your typical red state

@ Raven: wishing you the best. The sore throat was the worst of my experience with covid; I hope you have a rapid recovery. Was figuring you had it; you can indeed get 2-3 days of negative tests and then “hello, Covid.”

@opiejeanne: wishing you and your husband the best, too.

With thanks to all the preventative health measures that kept most of us safe until a vaccine and better therapies were developed. It was not “masking theater.” A lot of it worked, and kept the toll down. So sad that we could have done better, but we have terrible and selfish people among us. As we learn. Every single day.

@Goku:

“you’re an economist, right?”

No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night!

Seriously, while I did study Econ in graduate school for a year, that’s not where I wound up professionally. But I’ve studied economic data and the markets for the past 30 years, and have been applying my discipline to forecasting for almost 20 years.

“What do you think is going to happen with this FED tightening cycle, out of curiosity? A lot of people I read in financial media think the FED is way behind the curve on curbing inflation and could overcorrect, putting the US economy into recession.”

I agree that the FED is way behind the curve, and there is serious danger of the US heading into recession, but probably not until next year. I can’t read Powell’s mind, so I’ll refrain from predicting what the FED will do, beyond saying it appears that at least several more .50% hikes look likely.

I plead guilty, along with Paul Krugman and a lot of others, in thinking inflation would be transitory last year. I changed my mind by the end of last summer. Basically, the FED should have reacted to the huge increase in house prices, and realized it was going to bleed over into CPI via rents and “owner’s equivalent rent,” and started hiking last summer, but more gradually than it is now.

Elizabelle We still have to freakiest about “long covid? . right?

As usual, I’m sure the tweet about the VA study will be misused to imply that vaccination increased the risk of long COVID (increased compared to what?), though if you read to the bottom of the article it says the opposite.

Keep getting boosted, folks, and keep masking up…

I do appreciate that VA study–for a long time we’d been missing good information on how protective vaccination was against long COVID, comparing both to uninfected controls and to unvaccinated infections, and the answer, as most of us probably suspected, seems to be “somewhat protective, but it’s far from perfect.” So boosting is important and continued controls on transmission are going to be important, until/unless infection rates are very low.

I do think we need better tools, because at this point, almost nobody who still isn’t vaccinated is going to get vaccinated, and people aren’t going to change their behavior without strong mandates that are increasingly politically impossible.

Matt McIrvin I wonder what kind of shape the VA patients are in? I go to a big VA Medical Center inn Augusta and it’s not a pretty site.

raven @12:43
The VA hospital in Los Angeles is actually pretty good. Yes it’s been around a long time but is in good shape. I find it to be excellent. Could it be better? Sure what couldn’t? But it isn’t bad at all. Currently it is getting back to looking busy, because for the las couple of years they really, really didn’t want anyone hanging around that didn’t absolutely need to be there. What I really like though is the quality of the care. Yes that also could be better but I’m pretty happy with my care overall, but like all healthcare, one has to advocate for one’s self.
Anyway, hope things are going well for you.

test